Seventeenth century fishermen in Peru and Ecuador noted that every few years in November and December there were changes to the weather, and large catches of new kinds of fish filled their nets. This prompted them to call the phenomenon “the little boy of Christmas”: El Niño de Navidad.
It was a blessing then, but now we understand El Niño is a major, temporary shift in the global climate. Sea surface temperatures, which are already at unnaturally high levels across the world, rise even higher in the Pacific, impacting all oceans. This affects trade winds, which in turn, shift global rainfall and weather. Columbia University’s Climate School gives the example of “the 1982-1983 El Niño [which] was called ‘the strongest and most devastating of the century’ because the trade winds collapsed and reversed, causing weather disasters on nearly every continent. That El Niño event was blamed for nearly 2,000 deaths and more than $13 billion in damages.”
The Super El Niño that has already begun could be worse — the most catastrophic weather event in a century. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in its August 31 report warns that this El Niño is showing “a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.” There is a 69% chance of “a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.”
The northeast can anticipate a dryer than usual winter while the south will see floods until spring 2027, according to NOAA. The United Nations predicts close to 50-million people will starve. The last time there was such an El Niño was in 1877, and around 4% of the world’s population died of starvation.
Chico Harlan, the global climate correspondent for the New York Times, warns this Super El Niño could last 18 months to two years and create heat the planet was not expected to experience until 2035, which means if you thought this year was hot, you ain’t felt nothing yet.
Even while worrying about the horror of millions dying, gardeners are going to garden. What does El Niño mean for your garden and how can you plan now to mitigate it? Everything starts with the soil. If you start building resilience in it now, it will be better able to cope. Send a cup of soil in a plastic packet with a downloadable form to the UMass Soil and Plant Testing Laboratory in Amherst with a $20 check per sample. They will send back a detailed analysis of your soil with advice on how to improve it. Do this now before the spring rush.
These climatic conditions will accelerate weed growth and fungal diseases, but if you resort to chemicals you will eliminate helpful soil microbes, insects, birds, and other small creatures that will help you and your garden fight Super El Niño.
A lack of snow will cause stress in plants and trees such as sugar maples, American beech, eastern hemlock, balsam fir and red spruce, which Massachusetts is already starting to lose because of climate change.
I follow those who, like British environmentalist Charles Dowding, believe tilling is bad for your soil; it brings weed seeds to the surface and disturbs the millions of micro-organisms busy below the surface. Dowding’s no-dig method — here we call it no-till — which he has championed for close to half a century, has changed gardening for many people. This year, as an example, once the harvests have finished and leaves litter the ground, I will do a light scattering of leaves over beds. I place cardboard on every area where I want to kill weeds and improve the soil. Over the cardboard I place a light layer of compost and leave it. By spring, the soil will be light and rich with lots of happy earthworms below.
If you have dry areas in your garden, apply a good mulch to keep soil temperatures consistent. Raked up leaves are great, but not too close to the trunk of trees. Leave a collar of ground between the leaf and the tree.
Straw is an option instead of leaves, I’ve learned by observation. While gardening manuals stress you shouldn’t use hay, one of the best gardeners I know goes to the Needham Recycling and Transfer Station after Halloween and picks up discarded bales of hay which he lays on his garden to great success.
In damp parts of your garden you should improve drainage and mitigate flooding. That means strategizing around damp basements. The risk of vicious Nor’easters, with more rain and sleet than snow, rises during Super El Niños.
We tend to have clay and loam soils in Massachusetts, and heavy rain on barren soil during winter will increase soil compaction. Plant green manure any time starting now to late October to ensure the long roots of winter-hardy plants like winter rye and hairy vetch dig deep into the soil, creating air and nitrogen tunnels. In spring either pull them out for compost tea or rake them into the soil. I like the flowers of hairy vetch so tend to allow it to flower but I pull it before it creates seeds.
If you don’t normally wrap roses or conifers in winter, this is the year to invest in burlap because frequent, unexpected freezes or heavy, wet snow could occur, which will kill many plants.
There is another risk: Two years ago a handyman who helped me erect a small greenhouse told of getting Lyme disease in March at a site in Duxbury. A warmer winter will see ticks, squash bugs and fungal spores emerge early and in greater numbers. Be assiduous in composting or discarding spent tomato and squash vines and leaves as well as rose foliage to prevent powdery mildew in 2027.
Consider a rain barrel because the likelihood of drought and water restrictions next year is high. Plus rain water from the barrel is far better for your plants than chlorinated water.
Rethink planting vegetables and annuals around Memorial Day because with climate change you can now plant two weeks to a month earlier. At a recent Master Gardener event one attendee created conversation with the huge carrots she brought to show. She planted the seeds in the ground in February during a warm spell. My ground was still hard, but she managed to find enough soft ground to plant in. Though it was later dumped on with deep snow, it didn’t seem to trouble the carrots. As the earth warmed, they began raising their heads; a longer growing season saw larger carrots. I plant lettuce, Swiss chard, Chinese mustard, spinach, mizuna and kale in March, or as soon as the ground is workable. If the bunnies don’t beat me to it (which is why I am now an ace fence-repairer), I crop for months.
Prepare for catastrophe and if all the meteorologist and garden sages are wrong, your forethought should still ensure a great garden. Fingers crossed.
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