Last week I posted about how hay buyers and sellers were frozen, waiting for each other to move first. Here's an update….
Well, the freeze is cracking. Here's what I'm seeing across 60 markets this week – literally pulled this data 15 minutes ago, sharing this data early with you guys before my newsletter drops tomorrow.
Western buyers stopped waiting: Colorado timothy: $483/ton!!! California premium: $429/ton Colorado brome: $425/ton (INSANE)
Midwest buyers still hesitating: Rock Valley IA: $135-224/ton Shipshewana IN: $150-380/ton
Drought doesn't care about psychology. When you need feed, you need feed.
Every year people wait for first cutting numbers. This year, waiting is costing $200+ per ton if you're west of Kansas.
The data from my weekly tracking is clear…buy now, not because prices are cheap, but because they're going up.
First cutting started where you are yet?
Edit: For those wondering, I track this weekly in my newsletter. ( haywireag.com ) to share the fresh numbers here first since you guys actually seem to understand what's happening.
by Training-Bike6065
24 Comments
I was talking to a local hay supplier the other day, a client of his who normally contracts 400 bales, told them they can no longer afford it and are selling off.
You say “When you need feed price doesn’t matter, you need feed.” But that’s just not true. Price is relative. If you don’t have the money to cover the cost, you can go into debt. But once in debt, if you can’t recoup the cost in sales, that’s it… you’re done.
So prepare to see a lot of animal owners go under. The entire economy is smoke and mirrors, total nonsense and when you play those games, sooner or later the music stops.
We are letting our first cutting go a little bit longer. Probably end of May. We got a nice first cut but it’s been so cold. About 4 hours from us had snow(didn’t lay) on Friday. We don’t sell we use it for our animals. Last year we ran out and had to buy some. It sucked. Im east coast.
In North Texas, looks like another affordable year. The fields are looking pretty good with the recent rains.
Im not in the large animal field but I do commercially raise rabbits for meat and myself and fellow breeders in the area are stocking up on our commercial pellets in anticipation of a price spike since the pellets are alfalfa based.
Lot of Trump voters paying the price. In Oregon these assholes stood by their timber unity fuckery then used it as a calling for their MAGA fuckery. Now they are feeling it financially. They like to use stupid titles or change verbage to seem like they didn’t vote for him. Saying they are libertarian or nonpartisan. Well now we are all fucked and cant afford anything.
r/prepperintel
Few people understand how bad it’s going to get.
For someone not in this world, what is the price normally?
Wait what?! It’s been like 20 years since I lived on a farm, but I’m pretty sure it was like $20 for our round bales, so maybe $40 ish a ton?
Can you add a year over year comparison?
Climate change related. Leads to weather instability, i.e. droughts or floods. Pick your poison.
Difficult for farming, which needs stability and predictability in weather, rainfall and climate. Big farms are better able to manage but even they will be impacted.
The solution? Build more big data centers so we can use AI to solve our problems. People need to transition from real food to virtual food, which can be created in the multiverse.
Unlimited virtual food is the answer.
SW Colorado here. We have had no snow this winter. No rain this spring. Irrigation reservoirs currently at 60%, leaving 40% available to farmers.
My Alfalfa fields are more dry than they have ever been. Without the decent winter moisture to keep the grounds fresh I believe we will lose about 1/3 of that irrigation water to dry ground cracks.
We have already made the decision to not cut at all this year. We are going to give the fields a year of rest. Probably focus on throwing a couple hundred pounds of wildflower seeds throughout to encourage the bees to come back.
We are in a major drought down here and this winter has been the worst in decades. We worry about the lack of income from not cutting. We worry about the lack of food reserves for our livestock next winter. But mostly, right now at least, we worry about catching fire.
Good luck out there this season family. Help your neighbors out. Check in on them, force the hard conversations. Make sure they are doing okay. Farmers will die on their pride mountains. Don’t let them.
Especially us younger farmers. I’m 45, my wife 32. We are the youngest people farming within a 4 square mile radius. All of our neighboring farms are at least 65 years old, more than half are 70 plus. Keep an eye open. Pay attention. Be nosey. It could literally save lives this year. Folks are going to be more financially destitute and food insecure then we have ever seen.
And to OP, thank you so much for your time and effort in this research and posts. This is the real information we need to make the best decisions for our farming futures.
Politicizing everything and blaming others may help with the acceptance of the current farming situation nationwide but it does not help make educated decisions. These posts do. Thank you friend.
First cutting of the alfalfa in our fields was Friday. Shit was dense and green and gorgeous. Some of the phattest rows I’ve seen. But, we had a really wet early spring and now despite being in the rainy PNW, there’s been only one slight drizzle in the last two weeks and nothing in the 10 day forecast. That’s super unusual for April/May around here. We’ve already hit 80 degrees at least once and might hit it again tomorrow. That’s August temps.
Kinda worried about what the rest of the year brings.
What would be helpful is data from previous years, we have no idea how this compares and whether this is relatively normal seasonality or not
I’m in NY and I rent my farmland. My tenant is switching from Alfalfa, to corn for this year… says no market for Alfalfa? Shrug.
I just bought more hay than I needed for my rabbitry a few days ago because of your posts here, haha.
So thanks!
For those asking! I track this weekly at [haywireag.com](http://haywireag.com) . Free newsletter every Tuesday with the full breakdown across 60 markets. Drop your email there if you want next week’s numbers before they hit Reddit.
Meanwhile in texas we have rolled hay rotting by the road everywhere.
Haven’t been keeping up on this as it isn’t directly impactful. But why is the supply short to lead to cost ballooning? American drought? Supply chain costs? What are these numbers relative to on a normal year? What % of feed costs does it translate to in shelf cost/ how substantial is the impact on profit margins ifthe feed cost increases by 25% vs 100%?
Ive lived in the city all my life so this may not be possible but what if the ma/pa farmers rented out some of their land until we get to the other side of this downstream ride? Like putting up some tiny houses or storage sheds and make them into homes for boarders? I know it’s the morbidly rich poopiehead’s goal to grab the land but surely we can come up with creative solutions and outwit them?
Check out project 25 , specifically the proposals affecting farming.
I am considering relocating to a place where I can drag BS downed wood out of surrounding forests and creating some pasture because I feel like there’s gonna be really good horses going for cheap in a few months
What’s hay looking like in western Canada, out of curiosity?
…in northern Colorado…haven’t seen any alfalfa laid down yet…but could be a dairy or two that have started if they got water on it early…I’ve been going on first cutting in the past at this time of year. Calling for some 80’s this week and we have actually got some decent rain the last 3-4 days so she’s gonna take off hard this week. With how prices are the ol shitty thistle patch may get laid down..lol…I’m just kidding…
of course it’s gonna be baled.