More than a fifth of householders are planning to pave or deck over their garden within the next five years, obliterating a total area of wildlife habitat about a quarter of the size of London, according to the Horticultural Trades Association.

Its report said that 23 per cent of adults intend to pave or deck over outdoor space over the period, accounting for 409 square kilometres of green space.

Today, 26 per cent of the country’s domestic garden area is paved or decked, and the rest is soil, lawn or planted. However, at the present rate that would rise to 34 per cent by 2030, according to a report by the industry body for garden centres and nurseries.

View of a garden with a circular paved patio surrounded by gravel, plants, and a wooden fence.

The suggestion that hard landscaping is low maintenance is apparently a myth

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Gardening groups have been warning for years about gardens turning from green to grey. However, they are now mobilising to counter the trend with greater urgency, amid fears expansion of cold, hard and impermeable surfaces are nearing a “tipping point” that is existential for growers.

“Definitely, there is this challenge of paving over gardens,” said Professor Alistair Griffiths, director of science at the Royal Horticultural Society. “I think it will continue to undermine urban resilience. It will continue to contribute to surface water flooding, pollution run-off in waterways, loss of cooling [from vegetation] during extreme heat. And these spaces are critical for biodiversity and public health.”

For front gardens, homeowners need planning permission if they are replacing an area of more than five square metres with impermeable materials, such as a concrete driveway. Yet public awareness of the 17-year-old rules is poor and enforcement by councils is weak, Griffiths said.

Gardeners said the idea that decking or paving would mean less maintenance was misplaced. Rachel Bailey, who won the best garden award at this year’s BBC Gardeners’ World Live, said: “You don’t have a no-maintenance house. There isn’t such a thing as a no-maintenance garden, no matter what anyone says. Even if you’ve got paving and decking, you have to look after them.”

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The concern for horticultural businesses is their future is at risk if the greying trend continues. Analysis by the HTA suggests that once paving exceeds 40 per cent of a garden area, household spending at garden centres and websites starts to diminish.

But experts said the ramifications of the shift are much wider than growers suffering. Griffiths said there was a “huge” positive impact on people’s health from green gardens. An RHS study in Salford found that even creating very small front gardens from grey spaces reduced perceived stress and measured cortisol patterns after six months.

With citizen science surveys such as the RSPB Big Garden Birdwatch showing a continuing decline in garden birds such as house sparrows, green space also offers vital habitat. “Many beloved species, such as hedgehogs and song thrushes, are declining in this country and if we start thinking of our gardens as mosaic of mini nature reserves, it will make a huge difference for wildlife,” said Eleanor Johnston, climate change manager at the Wildlife Trusts.

Bailey said that plants help people feel “more enclosed” and buffer distracting noise from neighbours, but also fight air pollution. The RHS has called the shrub Cotoneaster franchetii a “super plant” for its ability to trap airborne particles of pollution.

Garden decking with planters and patio furniture.

Green gardens are said to reduce stress

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Sponge-like gardens can reduce the likelihood of sewerage systems being overwhelmed and triggering sewage spills, by slowing the speed at which rainfall drains off. Trees are particularly effective, and research shows they can reduce run-off by 80 per cent compared to an asphalt surface. Planting also curbs risk of flash floods of the kind made more likely after the dry spring this year.

Griffiths said even if homeowners did not want to remove impermeable surfaces entirely, they could use plants in containers and replace a few sections of paving with a ground cover plant such as thyme.

Bailey, who runs a garden studio near Glasgow, said excessive amounts of paving could be removed and crushed for use during landscaping of the garden. If people want to replace it with a lawn, she recommends a species-rich one with clover and daisies, which is less effort and better for nature than a “manicured bowling green. You can just let them grow. You don’t have to be out there mowing them all the time,” she said.

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