The predicted rise is based on July’s Retail Price Index (RPI), a measure of inflation that has typically been used as a basis for setting rail fares.
The RPI in July 2025, published by the Office for National Statistics, was 4.8 per cent.
So, if the government chooses to use the same calculation as last year (RPI+1%) to determine rail prices for 2026, regulated fares would increase by 5.8 per cent.
The Retail Price Index (RPI), a measure of inflation, rose to 4.8% in July this year. (Image: Sarah Agnew/Unsplash) This has led to serious concerns among rail user groups, who feel the government is unfairly penalising rail users.
Malcolm Cowan, a spokesperson for the Welwyn Garden City Rail Users Group, said: “Yet again, people who choose to use a green, low-carbon way of travelling are penalised.”
He added: “As it is, we in Britain already pay among the highest rail fares in Europe, why turn the screw even more?”
Regulated fares account for around 45 per cent of all train journeys, including most season tickets as well as some one-off tickets.
These fares are set by the government, whereas rail companies can choose their own prices for the remaining 55 per cent of tickets.
Andrew Lewin, MP for Welwyn Hatfield, said: “Our rail network is undergoing significant change, locally and nationally.”
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He continued: “We have to strike a balance between much needed investment and value for money and as both a commuter and our MP, I’ll be continuing to fight for the best possible local service.”
The current price of an annual season ticket from Welwyn Garden City to London is £3,836.
If the predicted 5.8 per cent increase comes into effect, this price would increase to £4058.49: an increase of £222.49.
But, according to the Department for Transport (DfT), decisions have not yet been made on next year’s rail prices.
A DfT spokesperson said: “The Transport Secretary has made clear her number one priority is getting the railways back to a place where people can rely on them.
“The Government is putting passengers at the heart of its plans for public ownership and Great British Railways, delivering the services they deserve and driving growth.”
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